Why Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market (And Why It’s Never a Bad Time to Invest)
If you’ve ever hesitated to invest because “the market feels too high,” “now doesn’t seem like the right time,” or “what if the AI bubble bursts,” you’re not alone. Many people wait for the perfect moment — but history shows that waiting on the sidelines can cost far more than short-term market dips ever will.
When it comes to building long-term wealth, time in the market — not timing the market — is what truly matters. And the best time to start investing is usually as soon as you can.
Markets Move, but Patience Wins
Markets rise and fall — it’s what they do. Yet over the long term, the trajectory has consistently been upward.
Take the S&P 500, the broad index representing the 500 largest companies in the United States. Over the past several decades, it has delivered an average annual return of around 10%, despite multiple recessions, wars, and financial crises.
Even when you account for downturns — the Global Financial Crisis (2008–09), the COVID-19 selloff (2020), or inflation-driven volatility in recent years — investors who stayed the course saw their portfolios recover and grow.
No One Has a Crystal Ball (Why Timing the Market Doesn’t Work)
It’s tempting to believe that waiting for the “right time” will lead to better outcomes — but countless failed predictions prove otherwise.
Many economists, analysts, and financial commentators have tried — and failed — to forecast the next big crash or correction.
In 2012, several high-profile economists warned of an imminent “Eurozone collapse.” Global markets instead entered one of the longest bull runs in history.
In 2016, fears of Brexit and a U.S. election shock had many predicting a major downturn. Instead, global markets surged in the years that followed.
Even as recently as 2020, when COVID-19 sent markets tumbling, few predicted that the S&P 500 would recover to record highs within months.
The truth is simple: no one can consistently predict market movements.
Even seasoned professionals with decades of experience and access to mountains of data get it wrong — because markets are driven not just by numbers, but by human behaviour, innovation, and global events that no one can foresee.
And here’s the catch: many of the market’s best days happen right after its worst days. If you’re sitting in cash waiting for the perfect moment, you often miss them.
The Real Risk Is Doing Nothing
Many people think of investing as risky — but the real risk lies in waiting.
Leaving your money in cash may feel safe, but inflation quietly erodes its value every year. Over 10 years, even modest inflation of 3% per annum reduces your purchasing power by almost a third.
That means the $50,000 you leave untouched today could buy only what $35,000 does a decade from now.
Investing, on the other hand, allows your money to grow faster than inflation. And by staying invested through the ups and downs, you give compounding — the most powerful force in finance — time to work its magic.
History Rewards the Long-Term Investor
Decades of data tell the same story:
Every major market downturn has been followed by recovery and growth.
The Global Financial Crisis, the dot-com bust, and the COVID crash were all followed by strong bull markets.Missing just a few of the best days in the market can slash your returns.
Research from JP Morgan shows that missing the 10 best days in the S&P 500 over 20 years cut returns by more than half.Consistency beats perfection.
Regular investing — whether through monthly contributions to KiwiSaver or global managed funds — smooths out volatility and removes the pressure to “pick the right time.”
The Bottom Line
There’s never a perfect time to invest — but there’s always a good reason to start.
Whether markets are high or low, staying disciplined, diversified, and focused on the long term has consistently delivered positive outcomes.
If you’re sitting on the fence, remember:
“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is today.”
